Hard disk shortage

[Robin Deatherage]

I just saw this article.  Any comments or thoughts?  http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57320282-64/hard-disk-shortage-will-get-worse-piper-jaffray/

[Bloody Jack Kidd]

A drive I paid $60 for a few weeks ago is now $160...

[Robin Deatherage]

Yikes.  So when do things like this become price gouging or just simple economics of supply and demand?

Anyone planning to buy a computer for Christmas? 

[Bloody Jack Kidd]

it's supply / demand presently, with the possible exhaustion of HD inventories early in 2012, this could be a big issue.  Cloud providers and large data centers (google, microsoft, facebook) are adding storage all the time - this could get ugly.

[Jim Jensen]

OfficeMax has a sign on the door announcing that due to the flooding there, they are limiting HD purchases to 1.

[KenH]

Just had to relace a drive in a work station, checking Tiger direct & Newegg, prices about double what they were a short time ago.... Yea, this could get ugly.

[Bloody Jack Kidd]

I was looking through the Dell site for "spare" drives - precious few drives listed.

[Jim Jensen]

I had completely forgotten that a computer at home seems to have a dead/dying HD in it. Not used often, but is the newest retired unit from the office and the alternative is stinky short on RAM. Great timing. Instead I think its time to upgrade a station and rotate a different one out of the office than replace the HD. Yes, that seems the more expensive route, but it is time to keep up the rotation in the office.

[Gene Foraker]

My guess is that around the end of January will see the price go down and supply of HDs go back up.   Simple enough to wait for 2 mo.

[Jon Robinson]

Happens all the time.  Just wait a few more months and prices will be back to normal.  Simple supply & demand. 

[Jeff Golas]

I was questioning this even a few days ago, as to how the flooding could still be affecting them this many months in...apparently...it still is.

Like others though, I think there is a line between gouging and supply/demand, not to mention the holidays.

[Mark]

Funny, as I just got an email from Western Digital: "Holiday Gifts for Everyone on Your List - Free Shipping at the WD Store!" http://archives.subscribermail.com/msg/7b60e40665f241d98c71f1a8d1df0917.htm

[Jim Jensen]

I don't know if it's the hard drives issue or something else, but Dell has now twice delayed my order. It's now scheduled for about a 5 week order time to delivery. It was supposed to be here a few days ago originally but now it's scheduled to come while I planned to take the week off.

When I talked to the "escalation dept" all they could tell was there is a shortage of a part, but no idea what part. I was hoping to get in installed and any other related changes during the slower time, guess that's not going to happen.

[Mark]

Probably hard drive related.  I know of a large Dell order that is 30+ days out and they specifically mentioned that it was due to the hard drives selected.  Apparently, they have quite a bit of 73GB drives, but the 146 or whatever drives are not available.

Don't know if it's really "quite a bit" but it was the difference of the order shipping out in the usual time frame versus the 30+ day wait.

[Bloody Jack Kidd]

my WD Black Ed. 500GB is behaving badly - and only a few months old. 

[Mark]

my WD Black Ed. 500GB is behaving badly - and only a few months old.

Warranty replacement?  I bought WD OEM's from newegg that had 3 year warranty replacements.  That's whats in my Synology and I had NO CLUE it even had a 3 year warranty (they were CHEAP drives!) until one failed and I looked it up on WD's site.

[Bloody Jack Kidd]

I imagine it's still under warranty... damn well better be!

[Mark]

I imagine it's still under warranty... damn well better be!

The first computer that I ever built from scratch had a WD drive in it.  That thing lasted a while, as in years but I don't remember how many, before it failed.  When it did fail, it chirped like a bird!  If you've had this happen, you know exactly what I'm talking about.  If not, listen outside a window during spring and you'll hear exactly what I heard!

I kinda freaked out because I built the computer as our "family computer" when I was a teenager still living at home with siblings in college.  This thing HAD TO WORK but mom & dad paid for it and already didn't like how much money they had spent on it.  Don't remember how much hard drives were back then, but was sure mom & dad wouldn't jump on replacing it.  I decided to play dumb and call WD (ok, I wasn't "playing" dumb, I was a kid!) got a tech on the phone, let him listen to the chirp and he sent out a new one on the spot!  The new one even had another 3 year warranty on it!  THAT was the moment I became a Western Digital customer for life.  Sure, I've had drives fail since then, but only one of them have been WD and all failures have been handled impressively in my opinion.

Also, my younger brother has started a habit of buying a new WD hard drive at the same time he buys a new computer and will replace the OEM drive prior to first boot.  Might sound stupid, but he started this on his own after being burned a few times (almost literally since heat kills everything).  Kinda nice thing about this is that if he ever has to send it in to have somethign replaced, he pops out his drive and puts in the OEM drive which was of course stored in the static bag the new drive came in.  Dell never gets his data, never knows he's not using their drive, whatever.

[Bloody Jack Kidd]

yeah, for a while 3-5 yr. warranties were not uncommon, I swear they were better made back then.

the WDLG tools were running on the drive when I left this morning, so I'll soon know if it's fubar.

it's really cutting into my CoD: Modern Warfare 2 time though...

[Jim Jensen]

The funny thing is that all of the HDs are plenty big, so I just took the one in their standard profile - one would assume that if there are problems getting it, they default to a different one. They still suggest the same one, too. My order is delayed enough that I had to affirm with them to continue it because there's an FTC trigger that would automatically cancel the order. I checked to see if that might be in my best interest price-wise (it's not) and they still defaulted to the same HD.

[Mark]

Jim, can you share which HD?

[Jim Jensen]

250GB SATA 7200 rpm

[Jim Jensen]

I think there's a conspiracy - I was annoyed that the new workstation is delayed enough to likely arrive while I'm on vacation, delaying it's implementation more. I just found out that an employee can't return to work as expected and I now have to cancel said vacation time off. That's not a convenient resolution.

[Mark]

I think there's a conspiracy - I was annoyed that the new workstation is delayed enough to likely arrive while I'm on vacation, delaying it's implementation more. I just found out that an employee can't return to work as expected and I now have to cancel said vacation time off. That's not a convenient resolution.

Doh!

Use http://www.wahve.com/ and continue with vacation as planned?

[Jeff Zylstra]

Just saw this on Slashdot and thought I would post it.  Looks like Gene's prediction is coming true!  +1 for the group prognosticator.  Hence forth, he shall be known as "the oracle of Ohio"! 

http://hardware.slashdot.org/story/11/12/21/0443248/hard-drive-prices-slide-as-thai-flood-aftermath-subsides

[Gene Foraker]

Thank you, thank you.

I'll further bet that by March 1, you will be able once again to buy a 1tb drive for under $60.   The flood caused market disruption was real, but hyped a bit and of course, at a bad time.   Production will probably be back up to near normal in the next month and maybe fill the backlog a month after that.   Maybe sooner.

I am a free market kind of person, but you have to understand markets.   Many competitive markets with small margins are quick to go up on bad news or a real shortage, but are "sticky" on the way back down so they can make at least a little profit.    Gasoline prices are this way.   Gas prices will quickly shoot up 10 or 20 cents on "possible" bad news in the Mid East or world or storm heading to the gulf, but when it turns out OK they will slowly come back down to normal.   That is where they make their margin in a very competitive field.

[Jim Jensen]

OfficeMax still has their 1 HD per purchase limit in effect.

On pricing - yes, certainly gas - stations were beating each other down the last few days - down to $3.02 and a couple under $3. This morning, $3.39. It will edge down a penny or two at a time then shoot up again. Seems to be weekly, rather than news-based anymore. I think they usually are just trying to beat the consumers at the timing game.

Thank you, thank you.

I'll further bet that by March 1, you will be able once again to buy a 1tb drive for under $60.   The flood caused market disruption was real, but hyped a bit and of course, at a bad time.   Production will probably be back up to near normal in the next month and maybe fill the backlog a month after that.   Maybe sooner.

I am a free market kind of person, but you have to understand markets.   Many competitive markets with small margins are quick to go up on bad news or a real shortage, but are "sticky" on the way back down so they can make at least a little profit.    Gasoline prices are this way.   Gas prices will quickly shoot up 10 or 20 cents on "possible" bad news in the Mid East or world or storm heading to the gulf, but when it turns out OK they will slowly come back down to normal.   That is where they make their margin in a very competitive field.

[Gene Foraker]

Yes, I definitely think that the oil companies are just  #@*%ing with us.    Just came back from lunch and the price of gas just went up 25 cents while I was at lunch.   I turned around and nabbed it from the other nearby station which had not yet raised their price.   Did war break out?  Did a refinery catch fire?   It used to take something big to change the price that big a jump in one day, not anymore.   It will go back down maybe 10 cents tomorrow and a few more by Monday.   Back to where it was after New Year.

[Coral]

For once, I am glad I filled up both cars yesterday. I try not to pay attention to the price. That drives me crazy.

[DebAmstutz]

The price of gas shot up due to travelling for the Christmas holiday weekend.  For whatever reason, the "gas gods" were kind at Thanksgiving and didn't do the same then.  And gasoline is usually cheaper in Indy than up here, even though we are closer to the refineries in the Lake Michigan area.  It's pretty well-known that the wholesaler in this area jacks the price up and the stations have no choice but to price accordingly if they want to make their 1 to 3 cents per gallon.  There are times when I travel to Indy that the price is 10 cents per gallon less than here.

[GeorgeW]

Gas went up here .40 to .50 cents yesterday. I filled up for $2.91 and now it's $3.39.   Merry Christmas!!

[Charlie Charbonneau]

You mean it wasn't expected for holiday travel?!

[GeorgeW]

Of course expected, but not $.50.....should be a crime!  Funny, prices didn't got up at Thanksgiving.

[Jan Regnier]

Gas went up here .40 to .50 cents yesterday. I filled up for $2.91 and now it's $3.39.   Merry Christmas!!

Same here.....$2.89 yesterday, $3.39 today.....